老年骨质疏松危险因素分析及风险预测列线图
Risk factor analysis and risk prediction nomogram of osteoporosis in the elderly
  
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-7108.2025.09.012
中文关键词:  骨质疏松症  老年综合征  CAR  同型半胱氨酸  慢性缺血性脑血管病
英文关键词:osteoporosis  geriatric syndrome  CAR  homocysteine  chronic ischemic cerebrovascular disease
基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2022D01C635);“天山英才”培养计划医药卫生高层次人才项目(TSYC202301B065)
作者单位
李淼1 徐锐1 黄俊2 魏静航2 程新春1* 1.新疆维吾尔自治区人民医院老年医学中心新疆 乌鲁木齐 830001 2.新疆医科大学研究生学院新疆 乌鲁木齐 830001 
摘要点击次数: 267
全文下载次数: 0
中文摘要:
      目的 探讨65岁及以上老年人中,骨质疏松症与常见老年综合征的关联,并分析其独立危险因素及风险预测。方法 选取2019年9月1日至2024年9月31日,在新疆维吾尔自治区人民医院老年医学中心住院的695名65岁及以上患者进行回顾性分析,依据是否诊断为骨质疏松症将研究对象分为骨质疏松症组(n=192例)和非骨质疏松症组(n=503例),对比两组间的指标差异。采用二元Logistic回归分析骨质疏松症的危险因素,绘制ROC曲线,采用R语言构建列线图对骨质疏松症进行风险预测。结果 二元Logistic回归分析发现,当调整了性别和年龄后,性别(OR = 2.81,95 % CI:1.88~4.20;P = 0.000)、CRP、失眠、慢性缺血性脑血管病(OR = 1.572,95 % CI:1.071~2.307;P = 0.021)、抑郁(OR = 1.78,95 % CI:1.13~2.81;P = 0.013)、衰弱(OR = 1.63,95 % CI:1.03~2.56;P = 0.035)是骨质疏松症的独立危险因素。而C反应蛋白与白蛋白的比值(CAR)、尿酸、同型半胱氨酸与骨质疏松症呈负相关。列线图显示在影响骨质疏松症风险的因素中,CAR的降低所占的权重最高。ROC曲线模型预测效能良好。结论 性别、年龄、CRP、失眠、慢性缺血性脑血管病、抑郁、衰弱与骨质疏松症呈正相关,是其独立危险因素;CAR、尿酸及同型半胱氨酸与骨质疏松症呈负相关。构建了列线图,可以有效地用于初步的骨质疏松症风险预测。
英文摘要:
      Objective To investigate the incidence of osteoporosis with common geriatric syndromes in elderly people aged 65 and above, and to analyze its related risk factors and risk prediction. Methods From September 1, 2019 to September 31, 2024, 695 patients aged 65 and above who were hospitalized in the Geriatric Center of People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether they were diagnosed with osteoporosis, the subjects were divided into osteoporosis group (n=192 cases) and non-osteoporosis group (n=503 cases). The differences of indicators between the two groups were compared. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of osteoporosis. A ROC curve was plotted. The R language was used to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of osteoporosis. Results Binary logistic regression analysis showed that when adjusted for sex and age, gender (OR = 2.81, 95% CI: 1.88-4.20; P = 0.000), CRP, insomnia, chronic ischemic cerebrovascular disease (OR = 1.572, 95% CI: 1.071-2.307; P = 0.021), depression (OR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.13-2.81; P = 0.013), and frailty (OR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.03-2.56; P = 0.035) were independent risk factors for osteoporosis. The ratio of C-reactive protein to albumin (CAR), uric acid, and homocysteine were negatively correlated with osteoporosis. The nomogram indicates that among the factors affecting osteoporosis risk, the reduction in CAR carried the highest weight. The ROC curve model had good prediction efficiency. Conclusion Gender, age, CRP, insomnia, chronic ischemic cerebrovascular disease, depression, and frailty are positively correlated with osteoporosis and are independent risk factors for osteoporosis. CAR, uric acid, and homocysteine are negatively correlated with osteoporosis. A nomogram has been constructed, which can be effectively used for preliminary risk prediction of osteoporosis.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭
function PdfOpen(url){ var win="toolbar=no,location=no,directories=no,status=yes,menubar=yes,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes"; window.open(url,"",win); } function openWin(url,w,h){ var win="toolbar=no,location=no,directories=no,status=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=no,width=" + w + ",height=" + h; controlWindow=window.open(url,"",win); } &et=351BF0A6440D6134A980300AA150D0CF6746B4F9222BC5C8A5B4549F97AD368D9BBFC055DD357875C66BAC2298CF96BA9F334AC35AFC49AEFF8836BAA9071291AFA407FCFFCB5ECD00F2CF8C3AA67BE6A5CC7223F826A283&pcid=A9DB1C13C87CE289EA38239A9433C9DC&cid=527A01A248DACB72&jid=CA678592D11E309E8E3FB3B2BFE9BE1A&yid=E6A891D2134F30C0&aid=&vid=&iid=9CF7A0430CBB2DFD&sid=530D9656D932F420&eid=C91D29281694E9C8&fileno=20250912&flag=1&is_more=0"> var my_pcid="A9DB1C13C87CE289EA38239A9433C9DC"; var my_cid="527A01A248DACB72"; var my_jid="CA678592D11E309E8E3FB3B2BFE9BE1A"; var my_yid="E6A891D2134F30C0"; var my_aid="";