中国骨质疏松杂志

1990—2021年中国肌肉骨骼疾病负担及趋势预测

Prediction of the burden and trend of musculoskeletal diseases in China from 1990 to 2021

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1006-7108.2026.03.008

英文关键词:musculoskeletal diseases disease burden risk factors forecast

基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金（2024D01C113）

作者	单位
白涛陈晓琦王荣刘岩路* 董振宇	新疆医科大学附属中医医院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830000

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中文摘要:

目的　分析我国1990—2021年肌肉骨骼（musculoskeletal，MSK）疾病负担及趋势预测。方法　基于全球疾病负担数据库GBD 2021，Joinpoint回归模型对MSK疾病负担指标进行时间趋势分析，ARIMA预测模型预测2022—2035年MSK疾病负担趋势。结果　2021年我国MSK疾病新发病例数为6864.60万[95 %UI (6197.60~7499.00)]，相比1990年发病例数增加了63.44 %，其中，类风湿性关节炎、骨关节炎、腰痛、颈痛、痛风分别增加94.48 %、150.36 %、45.34 %、66.21 %、160.49 %。Joinpoint回归分析发现，1990—2021年类风湿性关节炎、骨关节炎、颈痛、痛风年龄标化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate，ASIR）和年龄标化患病率（age-standardized prevalence rate, ASPR）呈上升趋势；骨关节炎、颈痛、痛风年龄标化DALY率（age-standardized daly rate，ASDR）呈上升趋势；腰痛ASIR、ASPR和ASDR呈下降趋势。MSK的DALY人年主要富集在30~84岁中老年人群，女性MSK疾病负担高于男性；1990—2021年归因于高BMI危险因素的骨关节炎、腰痛、痛风、总MSK疾病负担呈持续上升趋势（均AAPC>0，P<0.05）。ARIMA预测模型预测2022—2035年类风湿性关节炎、骨关节炎、腰痛、颈痛、总的MSK疾病ASIR呈上升趋势，痛风ASIR呈下降趋势。结论　1990―2021年我国MSK疾病负担总体呈下降趋势，但类风湿性关节炎、骨关节炎、颈痛、痛风仍呈上升趋势；年龄越高，MSK疾病负担越重，总的MSK疾病负担女性高于男性，痛风疾病负担男性高于女性。未来随着社会变化和人口结构的变化，MSK疾病的ASIR可能会呈上升趋势。

英文摘要:

Objective To analyze the burden and trend prediction of musculoskeletal (MSK) diseases in China from 1990 to 2021. Methods Based on the global disease burden database GBD 2021, Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the time trend of MSK disease burden indicators. ARIMA prediction model was used to predict the trend of MSK disease burden from 2022 to 2035. Results In 2021, the number of new cases of MSK disease in China was 68.646 million [95% UI (6197.60-7499.00)], an increase of 63.44% compared to 1990. Among them, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, back pain, neck pain, and gout increased by 94.48%, 150.36%, 45.34%, 66.21%, and 160.49%, respectively. Results of Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, neck pain, gout showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2021. The age standardized DALY rate (ASDR) for osteoarthritis, neck pain, and gout was on the rise. Lower back pain ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR showed a decreasing trend. The DALY of MSK was mainly enriched in the middle-aged and elderly population aged 30-84, and the burden of MSK disease was higher in females than in males. The burden of osteoarthritis, lower back pain, gout, and total MSK disease attributed to high BMI risk factors showed a continuous upward trend from 1990 to 2021 (all AAPC>0, P<0.05). The ARIMA prediction model predicted that from 2022 to 2035, the ASIR of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and total MSK diseases would increase, while the ASIR of gout would decrease. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the overall burden of MSK disease in China shows a downward trend, but rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, neck pain, and gout still shows an upward trend. The older the age, the heavier the burden of MSK disease. The overall burden of MSK disease is higher in females than in males, and the burden of gout disease is higher in males than in females. In the future, with changes in society and population structure, the ASIR of MSK disease may show an upward trend.

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